Conspiracy theories are often baseless and almost certainly nonsense. But at this point where all kinds of reports are flying around and nobody’s sure what’s coming up, people are really taking some of these theories seriously.
One of the theories that was in the media before the election was postponed last week was that the government was plotting to postpone the election. And the election was eventually postponed. So it looks like the conspiracy theories aren’t so ludicrous after all if you look at the current political situation.
On that note lets discuss five things that might happen before March 28 based on the conspiracy theories spreading right now.
1. The election will be shifted again.
INEC said it postponed the elections to avert potential insecurity, but most people think this is a ploy by the president and his team to buy themselves some more time so they can work out some strategy.
Now some people suspect the election will be shifted again because there’s been no clear assurance that the security people won’t push for another extension.
So are we going to have another extension to give the army and its foreign allies some more time to fight the insurgency in the northeast? That’s the next statement some people are expecting from the government or Jega.
2. An interim government will be set up.
There were reports online recently that the president will hand over to an interim government led by Chief of Army staff, Kenneth Minimah, if Buhari wins the coming election. The reports say the interim will govern for six months and then fresh elections will be held. The army denied this of course, but some people still think it might happen.
3. Jega will be fired.
Newspapers are saying there’s an ongoing plot to sack Jega or force him to a terminal leave. His tenure ends in June, but word in the media is that there are plans to remove him before March 28. One or two people have even been tipped to replace him. The theory is the government wants to remove him for the way he’s managed the election process so far and the way he presented the postponement, which seemed to lay the blame on the government’s table.
Femi lives in Lagos. He says, “One thing that’s clear is that Jega has compromised his reputation. He’s not as credible as he was five years ago when he first took the job. But even if they fire him now, it’s too late. They should let him finish his tenure and then we can look for someone else. Jega has smeared his name already.”
4. The army will seize government.
Babangida set off a revolt in 1993 when he annulled the election and put Ernest Shonekan in charge of an interim government. In the midst of the crisis, Abacha overthrew Shonekan and seized the government. Some people say we might be going in that direction again.
Olusegun Obasanjo said in a recent interview, “I sincerely hope that the president is not going for broke and saying ‘look dammit, it’s either I have it or nobody has it.’ I hope we will not have a coup…I hope we can avoid it.”
5. The election will be suspended.
One senator named Babafemi Ojudu alleged recently that the president intends to extend his tenure by two years on grounds that Nigeria is at war — the war against Boko Haram.
He said, “If anybody thinks there’s going to be an election on March 28, the person is deceiving himself. There are conscious attempts at lobbying some of us to work against having elections. Therefore, where they’ve got to now is the preliminary stage.”
Section 135 of the Constitution says, “If the federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the president considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years [of the president’s tenure]; but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time.”
What this means technically is that the president can put off this election for the next six months with the support of the National Assembly and then put it off again for another six months and so on, as long as he continues to maintain that we’re in the middle of a war. That way, the president can put off the elections for an indefinite period, essentially suspending the elections.
Some of these theories are plausible while others are just plain ridiculous — or are they ? We’ll find out in the coming weeks and months.