Sen.
Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., like many other red state Democrats, is a
supporter of the Iran nuclear deal. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is still
undecided but has signaled he could support the agreement. (Photo: AP/J.
Scott Applewhite)
Fewer
than a half-dozen Democratic senators remain undecided about whether to
approve the Iran nuclear agreement, but among those who have already
pledged their support, one notable trend has emerged: Democrats from
more conservative states have opted to back the framework.
And
while that might come as a surprise to some — given the propensity of
moderate Democrats to find issues upon which to create separation from
President Obama — in this case, the decision of the vast majority of
Senate Democrats to support the deal reflects the basic reality of
Senate electoral politics, especially for members from more conservative
states.
More
than anyone, those members need strong Democratic base turnout and
support to hold their seats. And Democratic voters largely support the
Iran deal.
Recent polling suggests that 70 percent of Democrats support the nuclear agreement.
To date, only three Senate Democrats have announced their opposition to
the deal, while 38 have declared their support. If 41 Senate Democrats
opt to support the agreement, then legislation disapproving of the deal
will not make it to the president’s desk and he will not have to issue a
veto, which would be an ideal outcome for the White House. Both the
House and the Senate are expected to hold votes on the multilateral
agreement upon returning to Washington next week.
A
good point of reference to consider the importance of base voters for
Senate Democrats from more conservative states is the 2012 election,
when many moderate Democrats won and Obama was at the top of the ticket.
While conventional wisdom suggests winning independents is the key to taking those statewide races, data from that election suggests otherwise.
Take
the examples of Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tim
Kaine of Virginia, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Donnelly of Indiana
and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
All
of those Senate Democrats, many of whom serve in states also
represented by a Republican, have already announced their support for
the Iran deal. And none of them won more than 50 percent of their
state’s independent voters in 2012.
Brown,
for example, won 92 percent of Democrats, who made up 38 percent of
2012 Ohio voters. He actually lost independents by 4 points, but those
voters made up only 31 percent of the electorate. Casey also lost
independents by 4 percent, but he won 92 percent of Democrats, and
Democrats were 45 percent of voters.
Sherrod
Brown, who serves alongside a Republican to represent Ohio in the
Senate, announced his support of the Iran nuclear framework in August.
(Photo: AP/Andrew Harnik)
In
2012, Kaine had the biggest deficit with independents, 44-55, but those
voters made up only a 29 percent share of the electorate, while 39
percent of voters were Democrats and 95 percent voted for him.
These
splits across the board were similar in each of the races mentioned,
where Democratic turnout was driven in part by the top of the ticket:
Between 34 and 45 percent of the electorate was Democratic, and
Democratic candidates won between 92 and 96 percent of those votes.